People are having fewer kids. Their choice is transforming the world's economy

Article here. Excerpt:

'Worldwide, the number of children born to the average family has dropped by more than half since the 1970s, according to the latest United Nations data. Economists say having fewer children is the norm for many families, especially in relatively prosperous countries like the U.S.

The trend is leading to populations that are dramatically older, and beginning to shrink, in many of the world's biggest economies.
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Already, women in the 15 countries that account for 75% of global gross domestic product, including the U.S., are having too few children to maintain a stable population. Many of those nations have fallen into the "very low" category of "total fertility rate" identified by the U.N. as a serious concern.
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"For the countries below 1.4 births per woman, we see much faster population decline and a pronounced shift in the population age distribution to the older ages," said Vladimíra Kantorová, the U.N.'s chief population scientist. The rate of births per woman in the U.S. dropped to 1.6 in 2024, the lowest ever.

In China, Japan, Italy and South Korea, deaths already outpace births. Demographers say more high-income countries would face population decline, if not for high rates of immigration.
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Some researchers, including Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin, think fears about shrinking families are overblown. Goldin described much of the concern as a political backlash against high rates of immigration and women's empowerment.

Asked about economic impacts of an aging, declining workforce, Goldin said, "I am not worried about that. Scarcity is everywhere; trade-offs are everywhere. There is no optimal birth rate."
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Ashley Evancho, the financial planner and mom who lives near Buffalo, agrees families like hers aren't likely to have more kids, even if governments offer incentives and benefits.

"My opportunity cost, the opportunity cost to my career or my education [of having more children] is so much higher," she said. "So the economy, the way it works, will probably have to fundamentally change."'