When dismay is a front-runner

Submitted by Mastodon on Mon, 2013-09-09 00:24

Article here. Excerpt:

'Some are so eager to be inaugurated in 2017 that the 2016 campaign has begun 28 months before the 1.4 percent of Americans who live in Iowa and New Hampshire express themselves. It is, therefore, not too soon to get a head start on being dismayed. Consider two probable candidates.

Hillary Clinton comes among us trailing clouds of incense, so some acolytes will call it ill-mannered, even misogynistic to ask: What exactly is it about the condition of the world, and about America's relations with other nations, that recommends the former secretary of state for an even more elevated office?
...
That contemporary feminism is thin gruel is apparent in the fact that it has found its incarnation in a woman who married her way to the upper reaches of American politics. Still, the world's oldest political party might not allow a contest to mar the reverent awarding to her of its next nomination.'

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Even if Hillary Clinton (who, unlike women in politics who did it for themselves, such as Golda Meir, Margaret Thatcher, or Angela Merkel, couldn't've made it past K Street if she hadn't hitched her caboose to Bill's train) became the Demo nominee for 2016, the result of the election is far from a foregone conclusion. Will putting up Hillary win votes from those inclined to vote Republican? Will it cause those inclined to vote Demo to continue to do so? Those are two critical questions the Demo party strategists must answer correctly. The Demo party's actual leadership (the powers behind the throne) need to be sure that Hillary's nomination will at least retain last election's voters net, and by electoral count, which is what really matters. If they get the same popular vote but distributed differently, they could lose in '16. Now if they can retain or increase votes by Demos and/or gain GOP voters, then yeah, it's sewn up. The popular vote in '12 was taken by Obama by *less than one percent*, and with a narrower margin than '08.

The GOP gained control of more state legislatures and governorships in '12 than they had in '08. That is not insignificant as bellwethers go, and at the moment they also control a majority of state executive and legislative branches.

I understand why HC hasn't said much about running for '16. A lot of skeletons can and will get dragged out of closets. This'll be very uncomfortable for her, Bill, and most important to them both, Chelsea. On top of that, she's no spring chicken. At her age, really, do you want to have to deal with the kind of crap today's US prezes have to? We've had older prezes before. It turned out to be, IMO, bad for the country as well as pretty onerous on them. I'd say POTUS ought to be no less than 50 but no more than 60 at swearing-in. But that's just my opinion.

A Hillary vs. ? race'll be quite a spectacle no matter what. But personally, unless her GOP opponent is a complete douche-bag, my gut tells me it'll be pretty hard for her to win. This election is the Republicans' to lose. We just have to see if they lose it.

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Submitted by Matt on Mon, 2013-09-09 05:59